7 of probably the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three main products. We have been launched to the Cybercab, Tesla’s absolutely self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk additionally unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, solely larger and weirder-looking. And Elon completed the present by bringing in a military of horrifying Optimus robots that may someday play board video games along with your youngsters and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a person with loads to say, Elon’s supply was low vitality, however regardless of the muted presentation, there have been some absolute gems to be discovered. That is as a result of Elon managed to throw in some actually outrageous claims all through the presentation that lasted underneath an hour. Listed below are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims throughout the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robotic would be the largest product ever of any sort

I believe the wheel might need one thing to say about that

Tesla

Let’s begin with some of the ludicrous claims of all. This one is so massive that it must be quoted precisely. Elon Musk, with a straight face, said the next about his Optimus robotic:

“I believe this would be the largest product ever, of any sort.”

Let’s simply put that into context. There are some severe contenders already for probably the most vital product ever of any sort. Two of the three merchandise showcased on the We, Robotic occasion used wheels, and the wheel absolutely must be in with a shout, proper? In response to Elon, his robotic that may barely stroll with out trying prefer it’s about to fall over, can be larger than the wheel, a product that has been used for 1000’s of years. Certain it can, Elon.

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2 Each one of many eight billion folks of Earth will need an Optimus buddy

Do we actually need a robotic military of billions?

Tesla

Elon additionally claims that “each one of many eight billion folks of Earth will need an Optimus buddy.” The truth is, some could even need two. That is although the Optimus robotic is more likely to price $30,000 when constructed at scale. I am positive when you requested somebody presently dwelling in a warfare zone or affected by famine what they’d most wish to spend $30,000 on, the reply would positively be a daunting humanoid robotic.

There is a quite simple option to show that Elon’s assertion is not true. I can inform you proper now I do not need one. There isn’t any means that I need to personal a humanoid robotic constructed by an organization that may’t even make a workable truck. Having loved the various hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there isn’t any means that no less than certainly one of these Optimus robots is not going to blow up, catch fireplace, or begin telling you to place down your weapons and that you’ve 20 seconds to conform, just like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I do not need an Optimus buddy, which I do not, then that declare that eight billion folks will need one cannot be true; it is going to be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% chance that digital tremendous intelligence will not be dangerous

60% of the time, it really works each time

Terminator

This was a throwaway remark, however it’s one which Elon has made earlier than. In response to him, there’s an 80% probability digital tremendous intelligence can be a power for good. Sadly, the flip aspect of because of this there is a one in 5 probability that AI will develop into self-aware and launch nukes towards us.

It is unclear the place Elon has pulled these figures from. He could have requested Grok AI to determine it out, so it is nearly definitely extremely correct. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all of the AI chatbots proper now as a result of a one-in-five probability of AI destroying us all appears worryingly excessive. By no means inform me the chances.

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4 Anybody will have the ability to have any services they need

Who’s paying for the facility, Elon?

Tesla

There appears to be lots of people in the meanwhile saying that expertise will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Solely not too long ago, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the person behind ChatGPT, claimed in a weblog submit that “sooner or later, everybody’s lives might be higher than anybody’s life is now.” Elon is providing an identical view of the long run; with Optimus robots doing all the roles for us, it can usher in a brand new daybreak the place “anybody will have the ability to have any services they need; it is going to be an age of abundance.”

The flaw on this plan is that even with robots doing all of the work at no cost, services nonetheless require uncooked supplies and vitality, each of which price cash. It is unlikely that robots changing people getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a manufacturing facility in China will imply you can purchase the iPhone 19 for $10. It is attention-grabbing that every one the people who appear to be saying that tech will convey a brand new daybreak of prosperity are additionally those promoting that tech. Perhaps it can develop into true — for them, no less than.

5 Your autonomous automobile can be used ten instances extra usually than your present automobile

The concept is sweet, however the figures do not add up

Tesla

This one is a little bit contentious as a result of, to some extent, the declare has the potential to be true. Nonetheless, the numbers simply do not appear so as to add up. Elon factors out that the common particular person makes use of their automobile for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in every week. If a automobile can drive itself, then it could possibly be used as a lot as ten instances greater than vehicles are presently, making your automobile ten instances extra invaluable.

At first look, this appears so as to add up. In case your automobile can drive itself, then while you’re not utilizing it, you would put it to work as a taxi, driving round and taking folks the place they should go, and incomes you some cash when you sleep or work. It would not appear unreasonable that your automobile could possibly be used for 100 hours within the week on this means.

There are a number of points right here, nevertheless. Firstly, when you’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving automobile, would you like complete strangers driving round in it for 90 hours every week? Even when you do, there’s an issue with demand. You let folks use your automobile as a taxi for 90 hours every week, no downside. Your neighbor does the identical. So does the neighbor on the opposite aspect. Three homes alone can supply almost 300 hours of rides every week. It would not take lengthy earlier than the obtainable hours from all of those autonomous vehicles vastly outstrip the demand, that means that your automobile will find yourself sitting idle in your storage in any case.

If by some means demand matches provide, the issues are even worse. If each automobile is used for ten instances as a lot as it’s presently, then the roads can have ten instances the quantity of visitors — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will develop into automobile shepherds with flocks of vehicles

If one Uber driver has 20 vehicles, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

Should you’re an Uber driver apprehensive about shedding your supply of revenue, don’t be concerned, Elon has you coated. He envisions that immediately’s Uber drivers will develop into tomorrow’s automobile shepherds. That is proper, Uber drivers sooner or later can have fleets of 10-20 vehicles that they are going to take care of like a shepherd tends to his flock.

By no means thoughts {that a} fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you again round $600,000, cash that the common Uber driver is unlikely to have mendacity round. As soon as once more, it is a difficulty of demand. If an Uber driver immediately goes from one automobile to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 different Uber drivers, that means the opposite 19 are successfully put out of enterprise. It is not attainable for each driver immediately to run a fleet of 20 vehicles and nonetheless have sufficient demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab can be prepared earlier than 2027

Tesla’s monitor document says in any other case

Tesla

I did not assume any declare could possibly be extra unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the largest product ever, however he managed to prime it with an much more unlikely declare. That is proper, Elon mentioned that the Cybercab can be prepared “earlier than 2027.” Let’s check out latest historical past. In 2014, Elon mentioned that the Cybertruck can be prepared in 4-5 years. 2018 got here and went, however no Cybertruck. 2019, once we ought to have been in a position to begin shopping for them, was when the primary idea Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t till the very finish of 2023 that the primary Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is mainly only a massive automobile with a hideous-looking physique, hardly an enormous technological leap. The Cybercab goals to be a state-of-the-art, absolutely self-driving autonomous car that should bear rigorous security testing earlier than folks go anyplace close to one. The probabilities of that occuring earlier than 2027 are slim to none.